ANALYSIS: YANKEES SEND MONTERO TO SEATLE FOR PINEDA

The Yankees just made their offseason splash, as they acquired pitcher Michael Pineda for prized catching prospect Jesus Montero. The other two players involved were relief pitcher Hector Noesi and pitching prospect Jose Campos. Here's my analysis of this trade:

Mariners side:

Jesus Montero: Montero has an amazing bat with the potential to be a .300 hitter with 35-40 home run power and has tremendous ability to hit to all fields. The only problem with Montero is that he's not a very good defensive catcher and has trouble throwing runners out. I think if Seattle uses him as a first baseman or as a DH, he will thrive.

GRADE: A

Hector Noesi: Noesi did well in limited Major League time in 2011 as he pitched to a 4.47 ERA out of the bullpen. He doesn't throw hard but has a great sinker and good control. He will probably do well in Seattle in a large ballpark which will give him more breathing room in terms of giving up fly balls.

GRADE: B-

Yankees side:

Michael Pineda: Through the first half of 2012, Pineda was the leading Rookie Of The Year candidate. Overall, he went 9-10 and posted a 3.74 ERA in 2011. The highest batting average against him for a single month was .235, .209 overall for the season. His fastball velocity tops out in the upper 90's and he has a changeup in the mid 80's. This combination will help him be a solid number two starter behind CC Sabathia in the Yankees pitching rotation in 2012.

GRADE: A

Jose Campos: Though he's only 19, Campos is already drawing comparisons to Pineda. In 14 starts at A- ball last season he posted an ERA of 2.32, averaged over a strikeout per inning, and held opponents to a .210 batting average. I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up being a solid big league pitcher for a longtime to come.

GRADE: B+

5 GREATEST JORGE POSADA MOMENTS

Reports of Jorge Posada's impending retirement got me thinking about his great career.  Here are my top five greatest Posada moments during his 17-year career with the Yankees:


5. August 13th 2011: Posada was making his triumphant return to the Yankee lineup after being benched on August 7th, and he came back with a huge bang. He drove in six runs -- including a grand slam in the 5th inning.  We now know that this would be his last moment of glory.

4.  Game 3, 2009 ALDS: In the seventh inning of a 1-1 tie, Posada hit a go-ahead solo home run, helping the Yankees finish off a sweep of the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees would go on to win their 27th Championship less then a month later.


3. Game 3, 2001 ALDS: With the Yankees on the brink of being swept by the Oakland A's, Posada played a big role in keeping the series alive. He accounted for the game's only run with a solo home run in the 5th inning, and he used his quick reflexes to tag Jeremy Giambi out on Derek Jeter's unforgettable flip play. This win helped the Yankees beat the A's in 5 games, as the Yankees then steamrolled the Mariners and went on to the World Series for the fourth straight season.

2. April 16th 2009: This was a special day in Yankee history as it was the first game at the new Yankee Stadium, and Jorge Posada hit the first home run in the new Stadium's history in a 10-2 Yankee loss to Cleveland.

1. Game 7, 2003 ALCS: Trailing the Red Sox 5-3 in the bottom of the 8th inning, Posada blooped a two-run single into center field off of Pedro Martinez. This set the stage for Aaron Boone's dramatic 11th inning walk-off home run to send the Yankees to the World Series for the 39th time.

As you can see Jorge Posada had a great career, filled with many great moments. I wish him the best in retirement.

FAIR EXTENSIONS FOR CANO AND GRANDERSON

With the Yankees 2012 payroll at about $175 million, they still need to re-sign two marquee players, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, to contract extensions before they hit free agency after the 2013 season. The problem is that they need to keep the payroll at or below $189 million from 2014-2016 to avoid heavy luxury tax fees. However, there is a way in which they can re-sign Granderson and Cano and keep a trimmed payroll.

Granderson is set to make $10 million in 2012 and, assuming he has another year like last year, he will want more money.  His batting average was only .262, but he hit 41 home runs and led the American League in RBI and Runs scored. The Yankees should offer him a deal for five years at about $16 million per year, a $6 million raise from his 2012 salary. This brings the payroll up to $181 million.

Cano, who is a bit more valuable than Granderson based on his numbers, is set to make $14 million in 2012, and will also definitely want more money. He hit .302 with 28 home runs and 118 RBI, one behind Granderson, in 2011. My offer to Cano would be for eight years at $21 million per year. This deal would be almost identical to the one Matt Kemp signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this offseason.

Assuming both players agree, the payroll would jump to $188 million, which would leave them with only $1 million to spend. This would force them to let right fielder Nick Swisher walk when his contract ends after 2012. If they let Swisher go, they will free up $10.25 million and bring the payroll to $177.75 million.

Also, if Mariano Rivera retires after 2012, as he has said he may do, and Rafael Soriano activates his opt out clause, that will free up another $26  million, $15 million for Rivera and $11 million for Soriano.

BREAKOUT PLAYERS 2012: AL EAST

Although the American League East is known mostly for high-priced talent, 3 of the 5 teams have at least one prospect who has superstar potential and could make their mark in 2012. These prospects may be part of the reason why these teams have not made much noise on the free agent or trade markets. Here are 5 players in each AL East team who could have breakout years in 2012.


Baltimore Orioles, RP Jim Johnson: Though Johnson may be a little older than the average breakout  player, he really took off in 2011, and may become the Orioles' closer in 2012. In 2010, Johnson had a respectable ERA of 3.42, but opposing batters hit .296 against him. In 2011, he pitched to a 2.67 ERA and the opposition hit just .238. His WHIP was down from a high 1.41, to a very good 1.11.

Toronto Blue Jays, 3B Brett Lawrie: This one is obvious. The soon-to-be 22-year-old hit .293 with 9 home runs and 25 RBI in 43 games for Toronto in 2011. He seems like the type of player who could be a consistent 30-30 threat for years to come. It wouldn't be crazy to think that he could be an All Star as early as 2012.


Boston Red Sox, RP Mark Melancon: The former Yankees prospect did very well in the second half of 2011, as he posted an ERA of 2.43 and recorded 14 of his 20 saves for the Houston Astros. Now a member of the Red Sox, Melancon will most likely be a setup man because the NL West is not as star-studded as the AL East. Also, there is less pressure on a setup man as there is on a closer, and it is a good way to ease Melancon into the job of ultimately becoming the Red Sox Closer.


Tampa Bay Rays, SP Matt Moore: After a combined 12-3 season in Double-A and Triple-A, the hard-throwing lefty pitched only 9.1 innings for the Rays in September, but they still decided to start him in game 1 of the ALDS against Texas. Moore pitched 10 innings in the playoffs and allowed only 1 earned run. During the offseason, the Rays signed Moore to a 5-year, $14 million extension, which is a huge risk to take on a player who has only started 4 big league games, but if he pitches at all like he did in 2011, it'll be considered a bargain.

New York Yankees, C/DH Jesus Montero: For the last few years Jesus Montero has been considered by many to be one of baseball's elite prospects. He got called up in September, when he hit .328 with 4 home runs. He played so well in September that he has almost definitely locked up the Yankees' DH job, if he's not traded for a top pitcher.

   

MOST REALISTIC OPTIONS FOR YANKEES

The Yankees have made it pretty clear that they are okay with not making a big splash on the free agent or trade market, but it doesn't mean they won't do anything. The Yankees could really use a lefty reliever and a right handed power hitter. They also need at least one more good starter. Here are 5 more likely targets for the Yankees:

1. RP Mike Gonzalez: With Pedro Feliciano out for 2012, the Yankees need a lefty reliever to go along with Boone Logan. Mike Gonzalez' name that has been thrown around by the Yankees. Gonzalez posted a 4.39 ERA last season, but he improved mightily in the second half. His ERA was 2.86 and his batting average against was 1.71. This move makes sense as a lefty reliever is desperately needed against the Red Sox, and Gonzalez has done extremely well against the Sox lefty hitters. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and David Ortiz are a combined 3-23 lifetime against Gonzalez with 0 home runs.

2. SP Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers righty from Japan is as consistent as it gets. Though he went 13-16 in 2011, his ERA was 3.06.  The problem was that until recently he hasn't been open to anything but Los Angeles or a return to Japan. The Yankees had shown interest in the 37 year old at the 2011 trade deadline, and may try to make a run at him now.

3. SP John Danks: The White Sox, who have a surplus of starting pitching, seem to be willing to deal Danks and the Yankees are rumored to be interested in the lefty. Though Danks definitely had a disappointing year in 2011, he has good stuff. I would offer Eduardo Nunez and David Phelps.

4. SP Yu Darvish: The prized Japanese righty may be the only potential big splash the Yankees make this offseason. Darvish set a career high in strikeouts and his 1.44 ERA was just below half the Japanese league ERA. He won't come cheap though, as it may cost the Yankees a $50 million posting fee and another $50 million to sign him.

5. OF Yoenis Cespedes: The powerful Cuban outfielder who hit 33 home runs last season is said to want north of $50 million, but Foxsports is saying that the Yankees are among the most interested teams, along with Detroit and Miami

GIO, GARZA, DANKS ARE NYY’S BEST OPTIONS

Lets face it, the Yankees need a number two starter and there aren’t that many available on the free agent market. CJ Wilson is widely considered the best free agent pitcher, but there may be other pitchers who are on the trading block who are better options for the Yankees.

Here are the three best trade options for the Bombers:

Gio Gonzalez: It might not be easy, but if the Yankees could pry Gonzalez from Oakland, it would not only give them a solid number two starter, but also a second lefty, which would be a valuable asset against the Red Sox. Gonzalez, who went 16-12 in 2011 with an ERA of 3.12, is one of the best available starting pitchers. My offer would be Eduardo Nunez and Dellin Betances. The only two players I wouldn’t offer are Jesus Montero, who will probably be the Yankees designated hitter in 2012, and highly touted pitching prospect Manny Banuelos. 

Matt Garza: The Cubs righty may be the best option of them all. Though he didn’t get off to a great start, he went 6-3 in the second half with a 2.45 ERA. The fact that he was able to recover in a place like Wrigley Field, which is well known as a hitter’s ballpark, is pretty rare. My offer to the Cubs would be Austine Romine, Betances, Nunez, and David Phelps.

John Danks: Danks would be my plan C, as he doesn’t throw as hard as Gonzalez or Garza, and he gives up a lot of runs. The only reason I would pursue Danks if I were Brian Cashman is the fact that he’s only 25 years old and can still develop. My offer to the White Sox would be Eduardo Nunez and a second round draft pick.

My Rankings:

Matt Garza

Gio Gonzalez

John Danks

YANKEES FANS SHOULD BE HAPPY PAPLEBON IS A PHILLIE

Former Red Sox closer Jonathan Paplebon has signed a contract with the Philadelphia Philies. Though his numbers don't show it, he had a very solid year in 2011 and could return to dominance in 2012. This would not have been good for the Yankees, which is why they should be glad that Paplebon found a new address. They should also be happy that Daniel Bard will become the Red Sox closer.

Bard, who throws exceptionally hard, has difficulty against the Yankees and teams above .500 in general. While his overall career ERA is 2.88, he's 4-5 against winning teams with an ERA of 3.19. Against the Yankees, he's 2-1 with an ERA of 4.13. 

Bard has given up only 16 home runs in his career, but 7 were to the Yankees. The most he has given up against any other team is 2.

Paplebon, on the other hand, had an ERA of 1.93 against the Yankees in 2011.

Though Bard has even better velocity than Paplebon, he isn't as smart a pitcher.

WHERE EACH TOP FREE AGENT WILL LAND

1B Albert Pujols: The world champion St. Louis Cardinals’ best player (possibly baseball’s best) has hit the open market, but might not be as hot a commodity as expected. With the Red Sox and the Yankees already secure at first base, the only major competitors for Pujols are the Rangers, Cubs, and Angels. I think he stays in St. Louis.

PREDICTION: Cardinals

1B Prince Fielder: There is no doubt in my mind that he is leaving Milwaukee. I believe the suitors will be the Rangers, Angels, Orioles, and the Cubs. He also has the problem of a small first base market. Chicago is a perfect fit. It’s a small ballpark where he can hit a lot of home runs, they have a new General Manager who wants to make a splash, and they are rebuilding and can build around him.

PREDICTION: Cubs

SP CJ Wilson: Wilson isn’t an ace, but is looking to get paid like one. This may be an issue for some teams, but the one team I think will pay him is the New York Yankees, who badly need a number two starter. Brian Cashman said earlier on Friday that Wilson is “the most attractive” pitching option.

PREDICTION: Yankees

SS Jose Reyes: The Mets will likely be losing their best player, but to whom? He will have many suitors like the Brewers, Angels, and Red Sox. Though I believe he will become a hated Mets rival and will sign with Florida. Hanley Ramirez has already offered to move to third base for him.

PREDICTION: Marlins

SP Yu Darvish: This is a guy who has seven pitches, including a fastball that tops out at 97 miles per hour. The twenty five year old would be a great fit in Texas, especially if they lose CJ Wilson. JAPANESE

PREDICTION: Rangers

SP Mark Buehrle: Buehrle, who went 13-9 last year for the White Sox, would probably make a great fit for the crosstown Chicago Cubs. He knows how to get ground balls and not give up home runs, which the Cubs need.

PREDICTION: Cubs

CL Jonathan Paplebon: With Daniel Bard having a subpar second half of 2011 (his ERA was 5.28), the Red Sox probably wouldn’t want to run the risk of worsening their already suspect bullpen.

PREDICTION: Red Sox

DH David Ortiz: Though Ortiz has sounded frustrated with the lack of an offer from the Red Sox, it won’t be enough to pull him away from them

PREDICTION: Red Sox

SS Jimmy Rollins: The one team that may be able to lure Rollins away from Philadelphia is the Nationals, who are an up and coming young team who could use some veteran leadership. Rollins could fill that void easily.

PREDICTION: Nationals

MOVES THE YANKEES SHOULD MAKE THIS OFFSEASON

The Yankees offseason began on a good note as they signed CC Sabathia to an extension, which will keep him in pinstripes potentially through the 2017 season. Here are some other changes they should make:

Sign Mark Buehrle: Mark Buehrle is a pitcher who can get batters out without great stuff by getting ground balls and not giving up home runs. He is coming off another solid year, posting a 13-9 record with a 3.59 ERA. He would be a stable force at the backend of the Yankees rotation.

      Resign Freddy Garcia: He may not be the pitcher he once was, but he is good enough to be a fifth starter in the Yankees rotation.


             Cut Ties With Jorge Posada: I know Yankees fans have grown attached to Posada, but he’s just too old and is taking up other players time

        Trade Nick Swisher And Sign Grady Sizemore: Swisher has been good for the Yankees over the past three years, but if the Yankees could get a talented, blue chip prospect, he might be worth trading. Even though Sizemore has had a lot of injuries over the past three seasons, limiting him to 210 games, when healthy he is one of the most talented players in baseball. The twenty eight year old outfielder has 30-35 home run powers with the ability to hit for a high average. He also is a great fielder and has a very strong throwing arm. In 2008, his last full season, Sizemore hit .268 with 33 home runs and 90 RBIs. The only issue here is the fact that Boston is also likely to bid for the left handed hitting outfielder and the Yankees may not want to get involved in a bidding war.

Most people may think the Yankees should pursue free agent pitchers CJ Wilson, Edwin Jackson, and Yu Darvish. Another name that has been mentioned is Carlos Beltran. Here is why these moves wouldn’t work:

CJ Wilson: He seems like the type of player who might not be able to handle the scrutiny of playing in a
city like New York; he seems to not like criticism. Also, he is going to want a lot of money, which he may not be worth, considering his postseason track record.

Edwin Jackson: Jackson and AJ Burnett have had very similar careers. They both have superb talent, but can’t seem to translate that talent into wins. They each have thrown an obscure no-hitter (Burnett walked nine batters, Jackson walked eight.) So it would be no surprise if they both disappoint Yankees fans.

Yu Darvish: The recent lack of success by Japanese pitchers in the Major Leagues (Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Kei Igawa to name a couple) may make this move too risky for the bombers.

Carlos Beltran: Now 35, Beltran is no longer the player he once was, though he can still hit, he isn’t an upgrade over Swisher.

POSITION PLAYER CHANGES THE YANKEES SHOULD MAKE

The Yankees must go through a few changes in terms of their offense and defensive allignment if they want to improve in 2012. I have a few changes in mind. Though some may be far fetched, a man can dream.

The Yankees should start by having Jesus Montero split time at the Designated Hitter slot with Alex Rodriguez. Montero would be the DH against right handed pitchers and Rodriguez DH against lefties.

The reason Jesus Montero wouldn't DH against lefties is because he would be converted to left field in place of Gardner, who hit a mere .233 against left handed pitchers last season while Montero hit .500. Also, Montero has a good arm and hasn't been a catcher long enough to have bad knees. I think Montero would make a competent left fielder.

Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez, whose performance has begun to slip because of a recent string of injuries, needs to get some time off while staying in the lineup. Having him DH against lefties would be a perfect way to keep his bat in the lineup.While Rodriguez is the DH, Nunez would play third. I know Nunez made twenty errors this seasons, but only six of them  were as a third baseman.

Lineup vs RHP


1. SS Derek Jeter

2. CF Curtis Granderson

3. 2B Robinson Cano

4. 3B Alex Rodriguez

5. 1B Mark Teixeira

6. DH Jesus Montero

7. RF Nick Swisher

8. C Russell Martin

9. LF Brett Gardner

Lineup vs LHP


1. SS Derek Jeter

2. CF Curtis Granderson

3. 2B Robinson Cano

4. DH Alex Rodriguez

5. 1B Mark Teixeira

6. LF Jesus Montero

7. RF Nick Swisher

8. C Russel Martin

9. Eduardo Nunez