AJ TERRIBLE AGAIN, BUT DON'T BURY HIM YET

AJ Burnett may never again be anything but occasionally strong again as a starter, but maybe he needs a change of role. The bullpen may be a way for the Yankees to not completely pull the plug on operation Burnett while helping the team at least a little bit.

Through the first three innings, his ERA is respectable at 4.07 and his strikeout total is 75, a little more then half of his season total. In innings 4-6 his ERA is 6.46. My point being, that if AJ pitches 1-2 innings every few days out of the bullpen, he would show a better side of himself then if he starts and is expected to go 5-6 innings.

Another positive, is that when AJ comes into the game out of the bullpen as a long reliever, the starter will either have already given up a ton of runs or the Yankees will have a big lead, so if he falters, the loss won’t be blamed on him, or if he gives up a few runs, he won’t have blown the game. This would help make Burnett more confident about the outcome of his appearances.

Being in the bullpen will work in AJ Burnett’s favor, both physically and mentally. 

MO STILL CLUTCH - JUST WATCH THE RADAR GUN

When Mariano Rivera is called on to close a game, he almost always does so successfully. The only difference between Rivera five years ago and Rivera today is his velocity. A few years ago, Mo was consistently hitting 94-95 MPH, but today it's more like 89-92 MPH, but he can still throw hard. Take Old Timer's Day for example.  After seeing all of the Yankees legends, he showed why he is the greatest closer of all time. At age 41 Rivera struck out the side in order in the ninth inning, while consistently hitting 94 MPH. Rivera's velocity also increased on the day Derek Jeter got his 3000th hit. Finally, in the first game of the most recent series at Fenway, he struck out the final two batters, hitting 93 MPH with his usual pinpoint control.

Though he has struggled of late, these spikes in velocity show that Rivera still rises to the occasion.

PLAXICO TO JETS

Forget about age and prison time, Plaxico Burress was a better option for the Jets than Braylon Edwards.

Burress, 34, is worth the risk because if all goes well he can be a great play maker who will draw double teams to free up space for other receivers. Besides, it's only a 1 year contract, so if it doesn't pan out they don't have to resign him. If that is what happens, the Jets can replace him next offseason with someone like Pierre Garcon, Marques Colston, or Reggie Wayne.

In 2008, fresh off their Super Bowl victory against the Patriots, the Giants started off the season 11-1, but without Burress, the Giants went 1-3 the rest of the way. This shows how valuable he was to the Giants. If all goes well he will be just as valuable to the Jets.

PREDICTIONS: MID SEASON EDITION

As we approach the 2011 all star break, I have taken a look back at my preseason predictions. Though some were on target, others don't seem to be working out.

For example, I was dead wrong about the Cubs. As foolish as it seems in hindsight, the Cubs didn't look so bad before the season. I thought they had a good pitching staff and with a few tweaks, they had a good shot at the National League Wild Card. They are now sitting in fourth place in the National League Central with a 35-52 record.

Another prediction that I'm changing is about the Yankees. I said  the Yankees wouldn't win the American League East and thought their best hope was the Wild Card. I'm now predicting that the Yankees will overtake the Red Sox for the division title.

One prediction I still stand by is this -- I was correct when I predicted that Curtis Granderson would be an all star, which now seems like an understatement.

Here are my updated predictions.

NL EAST: Phillies

Though they are ranked 20th in batting average, they are ranked second in ERA. With Hamels, Lee, and Halladay leading the way, the Phillies will win their 5th consecutive NL East title.

NL CENTRAL: Brewers

With Shaun Marcum, Yovani Galliardo, and a recovering Zack Greinke the Brewers have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Also, with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun in their lineup along with all star second baseman Rickie Weeks, they are the best team in the National League.

NL WEST: Diamondbacks

Led by Ian Kennedy, the Diamondbacks pitching is solid. They also have a formidable lineup which will lead the way.

NL WILD CARD: Braves

With a rotation led by Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson, the Braves look like a force to be recond with.

NLCS: Brewers over Phillies

This may seem crazy, but Philadelphia's hitting is not very good. They have players at the heart of their lineup that are very inconsistent or injury prone (Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez). Meanwhile, The Brewers are led by the red hot Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Rickie Weeks.That being said, the Phillies pitching staff is the best in baseball, but with Yovani Gallairdo, Randy Wolf, Shaun Marcum, and Zack Greinke, who is trying to return to form, the Brewers staff isn't half bad. 

AL EAST: Yankees

You may think I'm crazy, or just a fan, but I believe they have the second best offense in baseball. Also, with Hughes coming back from the DL, the rotation is solid, as is their bullpen. At this point, the Yankees may be the best team in baseball.


AL CENTRAL: Tigers

Led by Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander and star slugger Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers will put some distance between themselves and the Indians.

AL WEST: Rangers

They are the only really good team in their division, so they will run away with it.


AL WILD CARD: Red Sox

They are the second best team in the league, led by Triple Crown candidate Adrian Gonzalez.

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox

The Yankees may not have as good an offense as Boston, but they do have a better rotation and bullpen. In the end, good pitching beats good hitting.

WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Brewers

The Yankees have the upper hand in every category and will walk all over the Brewers.

WINNER OF RICHARDS SWEEPSTAKES: MARIAN GABORIK

Multiple reports say that the New York Rangers have signed UFA center Brad Richards. This is a win for the Rangers. It gives them the top line center they desperately needed, but the real winner is Marian Gaborik. After tying his career high in goals two seasons ago, Gaborik had an abysmal 2010-2011, scoring only 22 goals with only 26 assists. Though with Richards on his line, he will have a steady scoring force along side him who can feed him passes or score himself as well.

Now, will the Rangers then put a big guy on the Left who can score and clear up space for Gaborik and their newly acquired star Richards? Dubinsky?

TORTORELLA FOR JACK ADAMS

Though he has a reputation for his temper and fire, John Tortorella should certainly be a finalist for the Jack Adams award, coach of the year, for his success with the Rangers. I agree with the NHL's choices of Dan Bylsma (Penguins) and Barry Trotz (Predators), but I disagree with the choice of Alain Vigneault (Canucks). Vigneault coached a team with 5 players who had more than 50 points, 3 with over 70. They also had 7 players who were over +15. It is safe to say  they didn't lack fire power, unlike the Rangers who only had 1 player who had more than 50 points and 1 player who was over +15.

More importantly, Tortorella got the most out of his players, even some who had been written off as busts and some who were considered too young or inexperienced for the NHL. Two of these players who had been written off were former 1st round pick Brian Boyle and Brandon Prust. Boyle's career high in goals before this year was 4. This year, his fourth, he scored 21. This was the first time he showed his first round promise. Prust's previous career high in goals was also 4.  This year he scored 13. Both played very well on the defensive side of the puck, too. The success that Prust and Boyle had can both be attributed to the increased faith - as shown in minutes on the ice - shown by John Tortorella.

Two other players also made names for themselves with Tortorella's help, both rookies - D-man Ryan McDonagh, and Center Derek Stepan. McDonagh became a steady force on defense for the Rangers, teaming up with another kid, Michael Sauer, as a highly effective defensive pairing, while Stepan made his presence felt immediately, with a hat trick in his first NHL game. He went on to score 21 goals during his rookie season. The amazing part was that both of these players were in college less than a year prior to their debuts. A lot of the credit for their success can be given to John Tortorella, who did an amazing job managing their ice time.

Though I believe Tortorella deserves to be among the finalist for this award, I'm in the minority. I tweeted my opinion to several reporters who cover the Rangers, and they thought differently.

Andrew Gross of the Bergen Record in New Jersey tweeted back, "I think he did a heck of a job with this group but, no, I wouldn't put him in the top three for Jack Adams."

Arthur Staple of Newsday tweeted "Debatable... Did he do a better job than Boucher and Bylsma? Not sure about that."

Adam Rotter of SNY tweeted "he was considered one at one point, but then they struggled down the stretch. He was probably top 5."

TIME TO LEADOFF WITH GARDNER

Since Derek Jeter went on the Disabled List on June 14th, the Yankees have gone 6-1. Though it isn't a direct result of his absence, it is partly a result of his replacement at the top of the lineup. Since Jeter's injury, Brett Gardner has gone 10-21, and has only struck out 3 times. Though Jeter gets more hits than Gardner, he no longer can steal bases, which is Brett Gardner's specialty. Also, Gardner's .371 On Base Percentage is much higher than Jeter's .324. Jeter's OBP is even less than that of Robinson Cano, who is one of the best hitters in the American League, but whose On Base Percentage is not expected to be high because Cano doesn't walk very much.

Also, Gardner's Batting Average of .293 is about a third of a percentage point higher than Jeter's .260.

It is safe to say the more productive leadoff hitter is easily Brett Gardner. It is time for Joe Girardi to take a stand and put Derek Jeter in the 7th hole where he belongs.

JOBA CHAMBERLAIN: THE MODERN DAY KERRY WOOD

When Kerry Wood was called up to the big leagues with the Chicago Cubs in 1998, he was an instant phenom. 13 years later he is a brittle set up man with a medical bill that almost equals his salary.

His story is similar to his former Yankee teammate Joba Chamberlain. Like Wood, Joba came on the scene like a ball of fire and looked like either a future ace, or the heir to Mariano Rivera's throne as the closer of the New York Yankees. Then, the Yankees made a string of mistakes in terms of how they handled their young phenom, starting with a set of rules on how they can and can't use him, AKA, "Joba Rules." It only got worse from there. The Yankees kept changing him from a reliever to a starter or the other way around. In 2010, he finally was given a permanent role as a reliever, but he struggled mightily, posting an ERA of 4.40 while struggling to find consistency. Though at the start of the current season he began to show progress, he was stricken with elbow pain and will be under going Tommy John surgery on Thursday.

One can only wonder whether he will ever pitch for the Yankees again, and if he will ever return to form. If you look at the story of Kerry Wood, the outlook is bleak.

FUTURE CLOSER: ROBERTSON OR JOBA?

In my most recent post, I gave three options to replace Mariano. Here I will be examining arguments for David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain. I counted out Delin Betances because he hasn't had any major league experience.

David Robertson: PROS: He has been very solid out of the Yankees bullpen from 2008-2010, making steady progress each season. This season, Robertson is making a name for himself with an ERA of 1.16 with 38 strikeouts thus far. Also, when pressure mounts, he seems to remain calm and get big outs. His fastball has also gotten faster. Against the Angels, even though he struggled with his control, he was throwing his fastball at 94-96 MPH, which is as hard as I've ever seen him throw.

CONS: He walks a few too many batters and sometimes makes his outings nerve wracking event by allowing runners to reach base. Don't get me wrong, this is a problem many closers have had, it's just a little concerning.

Joba Chamberlain: PROS: He has an amazing fastball, hovering between 95-98 MPH. His slider has insane bite and it makes for a hard off-speed adjustment for opposing hitters. Though he suffered setbacks that would have ruined most other pitchers' careers permanently, he has fought through them to become a stellar reliever.

CONS: He is somewhat of a headcase because of constantly being switched between the rotation and the bullpen. Though it is hard to blame him, being a headcase is not good for closers.

MY PICK: Robertson

3 INTERNAL RIVERA REPLACEMENTS

For the last 16 years, Mariano Rivera's value to the New York Yankees has been indescribable. But watching him struggle last night against the Mariners has made me think about what will happen  when Rivera  is no longer around. As stable a force as he is, he is mortal. Here are 3 possible internal replacements.

1. Joba Chamberlain: He may be a bit inconsisent, but seems to be regaining his old form. His fastball speed is back to the 95-98 MPH range, with a good slider that is capable of fooling hitters. To me he seems like the most likely replacement option.

2. David Robertson: Though it seems more likely that he would be a setup man, he has closer capable fastball speed with good control of his pitches.

3. Dellin Betances: He has yet to make his major league debut, he is big, has a great fastball, with very good control of his pitches. He is an intimidating presence on the mound with a lot of upside.

Honorable Mention: Manny Banuelos, Andrew Brackman

I'm not saying Rivera is done, but someday he will be and the Yankees need to prepare for that day.