ALDS PREVIEW: Yankees VS. Tigers

Yankees VS. Tigers:

LINEUP YANKEES:

1. Derek Jeter

2. Curtis Granderson

3. Robinson Cano

4. Alex Rodriguez

5. Mark Teixeira

6. Nick Swisher

7. Jorge Posada

8. Russell Martin

9. Brett Gardner

LINEUP TIGERS

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Wilson Betemit, 3B

3. Delmon Young, LF

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Alex Avila, C

7. Magglio Ordonez, RF

8. Jhonny Peralta, SS

9. Ryan Raburn, 2B

Though both have great lineups, but there is a major difference in their power numbers. Two through five in the Tigers lineup has hit a total of 62 home runs, with Miguel Cabrera hitting 30 of them. The Yankees two through five hitters have hit 134 home runs. Also, the Tigers two through five hitters have driven in a total of 318 runs, while the Yankees two through five hitters have a total of 410 RBI's. This shows that the Yankees lineup can produce more runs then Detroits.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees

ROTATION YANKEES

1. CC Sabathia

2. Ivan Nova

3. Freddy Garcia

ROTATION TIGERS

1. Justin Verlander

2. Doug Fister

3. Max Scherzer

Though Ivan Nova has been great for the Yankees, he went 16-4 with an ERA of 3.70 during the regular season, Freddy Garcia has not been great of late. His September ERA is 7.36, though his last start against Boston was great as he threw six shutout innings.
The Tigers, led by eventual Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander, have two very solid starters to follow, as Fister had a September ERA of 0.53. Scherzer has had his good and bad moments, but is solid overall.

ADVANTAGE: TIGERS

BULLPEN

Though they are pretty evenly matched in terms of the back end, as the Tigers have Al Alburquerque (ERA: 1.87) in the 7th, Benoit (ERA: 2.95) in the 8th, and Valverde (S: 49, ERA: 2.24), who has't blown a save this year.
The Yankees on the other hand have Rafael Soriano in the seventh (ERA: 4.12), David Robertson in the eighth (ERA: 1.08), and the great Mariano Rivera as the closer (S: 44, ERA: 1.91).
The difference maker in this category is that the Yankees have so much depth with Wade, Ayala, Hughes, AJ, and Logan. None of these guys are weak links.

PREDICTION: YANKEES IN 4

The Yankees have more offensive depth and a better bullpen. Their rotation is also good enough to keep them in the game.

FIRING FRANCONA WOULD BE CLASSLESS AND STUPID

Terry Francona has been the Red Sox manager for eight years now, and has two World Series wins and has been to the ALCS three times. Though the Sox have missed the postseason for the second straight year, it hasn't been Francona's fault.

 At one point in the later part of the 2010 season, the Sox had 12 players on the disabled list, including Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Josh Beckett, all three being major contributors this season.

This year, the Red Sox went most of this season without star pitcher Clay Buchholz and flame throwing reliever Bobby Jenks. Also, the players didn't play up to par. For the second year in a row John Lackey didn't pitch at all like he did for the Angels, John Lester, Josh Beckett, and Daniel Bard ended the season poorly.

The Red Sox finished the season with a number of players who were playing in pain, including Adrian Gonzalez who had a bad shoulder, and Erik Bedard as well.  Gonzalez hit only .250 during the last week of 2011, and Bedard had an ERA of 5.25 in the month of September.

The point is, the Red Sox players were too relaxed and didn't want it enough, which is on the players not Francona, who has been so valuable to the Boston Red Sox over the last eight years.

X-FACTORS FOR ALL 4 AL PLAYOFF TEAMS, PREDICTION (edited)

Now that everything is settled, here are the final X-Factors.

TAMPA BAY RAYS: David Price

The last month has not been Price's best, but if he can turn it around in October, the Rays will float past Texas in the ALDS. The only problem is that last year Texas destroyed Price last year, and I'm not convinced they won't this year.

TEXAS RANGERS: Alexei Ogando

Ogando began the season pitching like an ace (stats), he has had a tough time during the second half (stats), if he pitches like the first half Ogando, it will give Tampa an amazing 1-2 punch which can be vital in winning a series.

DETROIT TIGERS: Max Scherzer

Even though Justin Verlander might be the best pitcher in baseball, it will take more then just himself to make it to the World Series, he needs a sidekick. If Scherzer can pitch like he has recently the Tigers will be in the ALCS facing off against the New York Yankees.

NEW YORK YANKEES: Freddy Garcia

The Yankees have CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova as their 1-2 punch, but If Freddy Garcia pitches like he did against the Red Sox, when he threw six shutout innings, or even close to that, the Yankees will be in the World Series for the second time in three years.

ALCS PREDICTION:

Yankees over Texas in 6

MONTERO FOR KING FELIX? HELL NO!!!!

Some people now believe talks between the Yankees and the Mariners may be revived now that Jesus Montero has shown that he can produce in the big leagues. If I'm the Yankees, and the Mariners ask for Jesus Montero in return for Felix Hernandez, I would say "you can have Nunez, you can have Romine, you can even have Betances and Banuelos, but you can't have Montero." 

Not only is Montero possibly the next Yankees superstar, but I don't see how much better they would be giving him up but having Felix Hernandez than they would having a guy like CJ Wilson, who will only cost money. Yes, Hernandez is better, but not by so much that you would be compelled to deal Montero. Some may even argue that CJ Wilson is better at the moment. Wilson is 16-7 with an ERA of 2.97 and 206 strike outs. Hernandez, on the other hand has not exactly been his Cy Young self, as he has gone 14-14 not to mention the fact that his ERA went from 2.27 to 3.47.

CHANGES THE METS SHOULD MAKE

This is a link to an interactive article by Jim Luttrell of the New York Times, which allows you to draw out the changed you would make to Citi Field's dimensions. http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/21/draw-your-own-citi-field-blueprints/?ref=sports.

Here are the changes I would make, both to the field and the team.

FIELD: As it currently stands, center field is 408 feet away from home plate, which keeps a lot of home runs in the ballpark. So, I would move it in 18 feet.

The wall in left center field is 15 feet, 8.5 inches high. I would lower the fence to 9 feet, which would add a few more home runs to Jason Bay's total. I would also do the same thing to right field.

TEAM: Basically, the Mets need to cut payroll and spend at the same time. Here is a way to do that:

1. 3B David Wright and OF/1B Lucas Duda to Detroit Tigers for P Justin Turner: By trading David Wright, the Mets would be cutting payroll while acquiring a pitcher who may some day become the team's ace. also, this would give the Mets another stellar pitching prospect to go along with Matt Harvey.

2. Sign P Chieng Ming Wang to a 3 year, $6 million contract: I know it sounds crazy, but given time to return to form, Wang could make a solid middle of the rotation starter. Also, he wouldn't give up many home runs in a ballpark like Citi Field.

3. Sign 1B Prince Fielder to an 8 year $180 million back loaded contract: Prince Fielder is the type of player the Mets need, the type that can hit the ball out of any ballpark. You can back load the contract, so they can pay the majority once they make more money. Then you must move Ike Davis to Right Field.

4. Sign 3B Mark DeRosa: Though he can no longer hit, he is a competent third baseman.

ALCS: BOSTON OR TAMPA? TAKE YOUR PICK

With the Red Sox barely holding on to their 3 game lead in the AL Wild Card, I began to think about if the time should come when the Yankees are in the ALCS, who I would rather see them face.

REASONS TO WANT TAMPA BAY:

1. BULLPEN: Besides our old friend Kyle Farnsworth, not one pitcher in the Rays Bullpen has an ERA below 3.00 (the lowest being Joel Peralta's 3.19.) I wouldn't even necasserily bank on Farnsworth with his history of giving up big hits.

2. ROTATION: I know this sounds crazy, but the back end of the rotation is very young and inexperienced. James Shields, or "Big Game James" is known for coming up big when he is needed. David Price on the other hand lost both starts against Texas in last years ALDS. That is the most playoff experience the Rays pitching staff has.

REASONS TO WANT BOSTON:

1. BULLPEN: Aside from Jonathan Paplebon, who has been consistent in the Red Sox bullpen this year? Over the past month, Daniel Bard has had an ERA of 5.73. The only other Red Sox reliever who has been consistently good is Alfredo Aceves, who has won 9 games for Boston this season and has an ERA of 1.69 over the past month.

2. ROTATION: With Becketts health being a question mark, the Red Sox will likely have to rely more heavily on Erik Bedard and John Lackey. Lackey has been very disappointing for Boston this season, posting an ERA of 6.30. The only reason he is 12-12 is that Boston scores about 8 runs for him on average.

If I had to pick, I would choose Boston. Not only would it be exciting, but Boston has more holes to fill than Tampa.

MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT AJ BURNETT

After a strong start to the 2011 season, AJ Burnett has struggled of late, posting an ERA of 8.04 in the second half. I have said, along with many other people, that AJ needs to be put in the bullpen. Now, after his most recent start against the Boston Red Sox, who have manhandled Burnett over the past three seasons, I believe it’s possible that he has turned a corner.

In 2009, AJ went 0-2 in four starts against Boston with an ERA of 8.85. 2010 was hardly any better, as he posted an ERA of 7.63. This year, up until Thursday night, has been similar as he has an ERA of 7.36 against the Red Sox.

Thursday was a different story. Though Burnett only went 5.1 innings, he allowed only 2 runs on 5 hits. He also struck out 4, while walking only 2. His progress really showed after Dustin Pedroia in the fourth inning, as he wasn’t rattled and retired 7 of the next 8 hitters he faced.

I’m still not 100 percent certain that Burnett has righted his ship, but I would give him at least one more start to see if the momentum from his start against the Red Sox carries over.

If AJ has turned his season around, he will make the Yankees rotation a force during the playoffs.